Circuit X Curitiba Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
BESTIA#65 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Galorys#68 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2BESTIA pick
68%43%
BESTIA · 15 mapsedge BESTIA +25%Galorys · 10 maps
AncientGalorys pick
50%82%
BESTIA · 6 mapsedge Galorys +32%Galorys · 13 maps
Nukepossible decider
67%70%
BESTIA · 5 mapsnearly even -3%Galorys · 6 maps
CacheBESTIA ban
36%57%
BESTIA · 7 mapsedge Galorys +21%Galorys · 3 maps
InfernoGalorys ban
50%38%
BESTIA · 6 mapsedge BESTIA +12%Galorys · 4 maps
AnubisBESTIA ban
50%50%
BESTIA · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Galorys · 8 maps
MirageGalorys ban
50%50%
BESTIA · 6 mapsnearly even +0%Galorys · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBESTIA remove Anubis
2. BanGalorys remove Mirage
3. PickBESTIA take Dust2
4. PickGalorys take Ancient
5. BanGalorys remove Inferno
6. BanBESTIA remove Cache
DeciderNuke (67% / 70%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct10:13
BESTIA 16%Galorys 84%
The model gave 84% on Galorys — the map was taken by Galorys.
Dust2prediction missed7:13
BESTIA 77%Galorys 23%
The model gave 77% on BESTIA — the map was taken by Galorys.
Model check result
Model favoriteBESTIA · 51%
Series resultGalorys 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2