Circuit X Curitiba Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
paiN#29 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Fluxo#56 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeFluxo pick
47%63%
paiN · 11 mapsedge Fluxo +16%Fluxo · 28 maps
Dust2paiN pick
58%53%
paiN · 8 mapsedge paiN +5%Fluxo · 15 maps
Miragepossible decider
45%70%
paiN · 7 mapsedge Fluxo +25%Fluxo · 16 maps
InfernoFluxo ban
38%50%
paiN · 9 mapsedge Fluxo +12%Fluxo · 12 maps
CachepaiN ban
20%50%
paiN · 6 mapsedge Fluxo +30%Fluxo · 10 maps
AnubisFluxo ban
50%42%
paiN · 2 mapsedge paiN +8%Fluxo · 8 maps
DefaultpaiN ban
50%60%
paiN · 0 mapsedge Fluxo +10%Fluxo · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanpaiN remove Cache
2. BanFluxo remove Anubis
3. PickpaiN take Dust2
4. PickFluxo take Nuke
5. BanFluxo remove Inferno
6. BanpaiN remove Default
DeciderMirage (45% / 70%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed10:13
paiN 61%Fluxo 39%
The model gave 61% on paiN — the map was taken by Fluxo.
Mirageprediction missed13:10
paiN 24%Fluxo 76%
The model gave 76% on Fluxo — the map was taken by paiN.
Infernoprediction correct5:13
paiN 38%Fluxo 62%
The model gave 62% on Fluxo — the map was taken by Fluxo.
Model check result
Model favoritepaiN · 68%
Series resultFluxo 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3