Circuit X Curitiba Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Fluxo#56 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Bounty Hunters#74 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeFluxo pick
63%56%
Fluxo · 28 mapsedge Fluxo +7%Bounty Hunters · 14 maps
Miragepossible decider
67%50%
Fluxo · 17 mapsedge Fluxo +17%Bounty Hunters · 16 maps
CacheBounty Hunters pick
50%57%
Fluxo · 10 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +7%Bounty Hunters · 17 maps
Dust2Bounty Hunters ban
53%42%
Fluxo · 15 mapsedge Fluxo +11%Bounty Hunters · 8 maps
AnubisFluxo ban
46%56%
Fluxo · 9 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +10%Bounty Hunters · 5 maps
InfernoBounty Hunters ban
53%50%
Fluxo · 13 mapsnearly even +3%Bounty Hunters · 0 maps
AncientFluxo ban
50%36%
Fluxo · 0 mapsedge Fluxo +14%Bounty Hunters · 10 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFluxo remove Ancient
2. BanBounty Hunters remove Inferno
3. PickFluxo take Nuke
4. PickBounty Hunters take Cache
5. BanBounty Hunters remove Dust2
6. BanFluxo remove Anubis
DeciderMirage (67% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct9:13
Fluxo 44%Bounty Hunters 56%
The model gave 56% on Bounty Hunters — the map was taken by Bounty Hunters.
Cacheprediction correct14:16
Fluxo 40%Bounty Hunters 60%
The model gave 60% on Bounty Hunters — the map was taken by Bounty Hunters.
Model check result
Model favoriteFluxo · 73%
Series resultBounty Hunters 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2