Circuit X Curitiba Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
BESTIA#65 in the world · win 2:0series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ShindeN#77 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2BESTIA pick
65%62%
BESTIA · 16 mapsnearly even +3%ShindeN · 9 maps
InfernoBESTIA ban
55%65%
BESTIA · 7 mapsedge ShindeN +10%ShindeN · 13 maps
NukeShindeN pick
60%60%
BESTIA · 6 mapsnearly even +0%ShindeN · 11 maps
Ancientpossible decider
50%58%
BESTIA · 8 mapsedge ShindeN +8%ShindeN · 8 maps
MirageShindeN ban
58%42%
BESTIA · 8 mapsedge BESTIA +16%ShindeN · 8 maps
CacheShindeN ban
36%36%
BESTIA · 7 mapsnearly even +0%ShindeN · 7 maps
OverpassBESTIA ban
50%67%
BESTIA · 0 mapsedge ShindeN +17%ShindeN · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBESTIA remove Inferno
2. BanShindeN remove Cache
3. PickBESTIA take Dust2
4. PickShindeN take Nuke
5. BanShindeN remove Mirage
6. BanBESTIA remove Overpass
DeciderAncient (50% / 58%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct16:13
BESTIA 69%ShindeN 31%
The model gave 69% on BESTIA — the map was taken by BESTIA.
Infernoprediction missed22:19
BESTIA 37%ShindeN 63%
The model gave 63% on ShindeN — the map was taken by BESTIA.
Model check result
Model favoriteBESTIA · 56%
Series resultBESTIA 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2