Stake Ranked Episode 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
3DMAX#20 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
HEROIC#26 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Inferno3DMAX ban
29%30%
3DMAX · 3 mapsnearly even -1%HEROIC · 6 maps
Dust2HEROIC pick
50%56%
3DMAX · 2 mapsedge HEROIC +6%HEROIC · 5 maps
AnubisHEROIC ban
38%50%
3DMAX · 4 mapsedge HEROIC +12%HEROIC · 0 maps
Mirage3DMAX pick
50%25%
3DMAX · 0 mapsedge 3DMAX +25%HEROIC · 4 maps
Nukepossible decider
50%38%
3DMAX · 0 mapsedge 3DMAX +12%HEROIC · 4 maps
Ancient3DMAX ban
33%50%
3DMAX · 2 mapsedge HEROIC +17%HEROIC · 0 maps
OverpassHEROIC ban
50%60%
3DMAX · 0 mapsedge HEROIC +10%HEROIC · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban3DMAX remove Ancient
2. BanHEROIC remove Anubis
3. Pick3DMAX take Mirage
4. PickHEROIC take Dust2
5. BanHEROIC remove Overpass
6. Ban3DMAX remove Inferno
DeciderNuke (50% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct8:13
3DMAX 45%HEROIC 55%
The model gave 55% on HEROIC — the map was taken by HEROIC.
Cacheprediction correct13:8
3DMAX 53%HEROIC 47%
The model gave 53% on 3DMAX — the map was taken by 3DMAX.
Nukeprediction missed8:13
3DMAX 63%HEROIC 37%
The model gave 63% on 3DMAX — the map was taken by HEROIC.
Model check result
Model favorite3DMAX · 53%
Series resultHEROIC 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3