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NODWIN Clutch Series 10 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
ex-MANA#147 in the world · loss 0:2
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Inner Circle Academy#80 in the world · win 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ex-MANA pick
56%54%
ex-MANA · 5 mapsnearly even +2%Inner Circle Academy · 9 maps
Ancientex-MANA ban
43%50%
ex-MANA · 3 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +7%Inner Circle Academy · 6 maps
NukeInner Circle Academy ban
60%45%
ex-MANA · 1 mapedge ex-MANA +15%Inner Circle Academy · 7 maps
AnubisInner Circle Academy pick
40%71%
ex-MANA · 1 mapedge Inner Circle Academy +31%Inner Circle Academy · 3 maps
Miragepossible decider
60%57%
ex-MANA · 1 mapnearly even +3%Inner Circle Academy · 3 maps
Overpassex-MANA ban
50%67%
ex-MANA · 0 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +17%Inner Circle Academy · 2 maps
DefaultInner Circle Academy ban
40%50%
ex-MANA · 1 mapedge Inner Circle Academy +10%Inner Circle Academy · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-MANA remove Overpass
2. BanInner Circle Academy remove Default
3. Pickex-MANA take Dust2
4. PickInner Circle Academy take Anubis
5. BanInner Circle Academy remove Nuke
6. Banex-MANA remove Ancient
DeciderMirage (60% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed7:13
ex-MANA 55%Inner Circle Academy 45%
The model gave 55% on ex-MANA — the map was taken by Inner Circle Academy.
Ancientprediction correct8:13
ex-MANA 40%Inner Circle Academy 60%
The model gave 60% on Inner Circle Academy — the map was taken by Inner Circle Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle Academy · 52%
Series resultInner Circle Academy 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2