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CCT 2026 Europe Series 5 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
megoshort#179 in the world · loss 0:2
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
SAW Youngsters#143 in the world · win 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragemegoshort pick
33%33%
megoshort · 5 mapsnearly even +0%SAW Youngsters · 2 maps
DefaultSAW Youngsters ban
33%50%
megoshort · 5 mapsedge SAW Youngsters +17%SAW Youngsters · 0 maps
Dust2SAW Youngsters ban
44%50%
megoshort · 5 mapsedge SAW Youngsters +6%SAW Youngsters · 0 maps
InfernoSAW Youngsters pick
50%71%
megoshort · 0 mapsedge SAW Youngsters +21%SAW Youngsters · 3 maps
Ancientmegoshort ban
60%60%
megoshort · 1 mapnearly even +0%SAW Youngsters · 1 map
Anubispossible decider
60%60%
megoshort · 1 mapnearly even +0%SAW Youngsters · 1 map
Nukemegoshort ban
50%40%
megoshort · 0 mapsedge megoshort +10%SAW Youngsters · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banmegoshort remove Nuke
2. BanSAW Youngsters remove Dust2
3. Pickmegoshort take Mirage
4. PickSAW Youngsters take Inferno
5. BanSAW Youngsters remove Default
6. Banmegoshort remove Ancient
DeciderAnubis (60% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed7:13
megoshort 53%SAW Youngsters 47%
The model gave 53% on megoshort — the map was taken by SAW Youngsters.
Infernoprediction correct5:13
megoshort 26%SAW Youngsters 74%
The model gave 74% on SAW Youngsters — the map was taken by SAW Youngsters.
Model check result
Model favoriteSAW Youngsters · 59%
Series resultSAW Youngsters 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2