Stake Ranked Episode 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Ninjas in Pyjamas#26 in the world · win 2:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
K27#44 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientK27 pick
36%64%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 10 mapsedge K27 +28%K27 · 7 maps
Miragepossible decider
60%55%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 6 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +5%K27 · 7 maps
NukeK27 ban
64%30%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 7 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +34%K27 · 6 maps
AnubisK27 ban
44%43%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 5 mapsnearly even +1%K27 · 3 maps
Dust2Ninjas in Pyjamas ban
33%63%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 2 mapsedge K27 +30%K27 · 4 maps
OverpassNinjas in Pyjamas ban
50%60%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 0 mapsedge K27 +10%K27 · 6 maps
DefaultNinjas in Pyjamas pick
50%33%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 0 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +17%K27 · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Dust2
2. BanK27 remove Nuke
3. PickNinjas in Pyjamas take Default
4. PickK27 take Ancient
5. BanK27 remove Anubis
6. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Overpass
DeciderMirage (60% / 55%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:8
Ninjas in Pyjamas 22%K27 78%
The model gave 78% on K27 — the map was taken by Ninjas in Pyjamas.
Nukeprediction correct13:8
Ninjas in Pyjamas 82%K27 18%
The model gave 82% on Ninjas in Pyjamas — the map was taken by Ninjas in Pyjamas.
Model check result
Model favoriteNinjas in Pyjamas · 65%
Series resultNinjas in Pyjamas 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2