NODWIN Clutch Series 10 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Honvéd#144 in the world · win 2:0series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
megoshort#179 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageHonvéd pick
56%38%
Honvéd · 12 mapsedge Honvéd +18%megoshort · 4 maps
Dust2megoshort ban
63%43%
Honvéd · 12 mapsedge Honvéd +20%megoshort · 3 maps
Ancientmegoshort ban
60%50%
Honvéd · 6 mapsedge Honvéd +10%megoshort · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
40%33%
Honvéd · 1 mapedge Honvéd +7%megoshort · 5 maps
OverpassHonvéd ban
29%40%
Honvéd · 3 mapsedge megoshort +11%megoshort · 1 map
Anubismegoshort pick
67%60%
Honvéd · 2 mapsedge Honvéd +7%megoshort · 1 map
NukeHonvéd ban
57%50%
Honvéd · 3 mapsedge Honvéd +7%megoshort · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHonvéd remove Nuke
2. Banmegoshort remove Ancient
3. PickHonvéd take Mirage
4. Pickmegoshort take Anubis
5. Banmegoshort remove Dust2
6. BanHonvéd remove Overpass
DeciderDefault (40% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:7
Honvéd 66%megoshort 34%
The model gave 66% on Honvéd — the map was taken by Honvéd.
Dust2prediction correct13:10
Honvéd 71%megoshort 29%
The model gave 71% on Honvéd — the map was taken by Honvéd.
Model check result
Model favoriteHonvéd · 63%
Series resultHonvéd 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2