Stake Ranked Episode 5 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
9INE#80 in the world · win 2:1series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:1
aimclub#98 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancient9INE pick
54%29%
9INE · 9 mapsedge 9INE +25%aimclub · 3 maps
Nukeaimclub ban
57%50%
9INE · 10 mapsedge 9INE +7%aimclub · 0 maps
Dust29INE ban
40%43%
9INE · 6 mapsnearly even -3%aimclub · 3 maps
Cacheaimclub ban
56%60%
9INE · 5 mapsnearly even -4%aimclub · 1 map
Mirage9INE ban
50%67%
9INE · 4 mapsedge aimclub +17%aimclub · 2 maps
Anubispossible decider
57%50%
9INE · 3 mapsedge 9INE +7%aimclub · 0 maps
Defaultaimclub pick
40%50%
9INE · 1 mapedge aimclub +10%aimclub · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban9INE remove Mirage
2. Banaimclub remove Nuke
3. Pick9INE take Ancient
4. Pickaimclub take Default
5. Banaimclub remove Cache
6. Ban9INE remove Dust2
DeciderAnubis (57% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:7
9INE 31%aimclub 69%
The model gave 69% on aimclub — the map was taken by 9INE.
Anubisprediction missed6:13
9INE 60%aimclub 40%
The model gave 60% on 9INE — the map was taken by aimclub.
Cacheprediction missed13:5
9INE 45%aimclub 55%
The model gave 55% on aimclub — the map was taken by 9INE.
Model check result
Model favorite9INE · 71%
Series result9INE 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3