ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
QUAZAR#94 in the world · win 2:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BRUTE#74 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2QUAZAR ban
57%71%
QUAZAR · 3 mapsedge BRUTE +14%BRUTE · 13 maps
NukeBRUTE ban
60%54%
QUAZAR · 6 mapsedge QUAZAR +6%BRUTE · 9 maps
InfernoQUAZAR ban
67%50%
QUAZAR · 2 mapsedge QUAZAR +17%BRUTE · 10 maps
MirageQUAZAR pick
71%42%
QUAZAR · 3 mapsedge QUAZAR +29%BRUTE · 8 maps
AnubisBRUTE ban
60%33%
QUAZAR · 6 mapsedge QUAZAR +27%BRUTE · 2 maps
OverpassBRUTE pick
50%73%
QUAZAR · 0 mapsedge BRUTE +23%BRUTE · 7 maps
Cachepossible decider
43%33%
QUAZAR · 3 mapsedge QUAZAR +10%BRUTE · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanQUAZAR remove Dust2
2. BanBRUTE remove Anubis
3. PickQUAZAR take Mirage
4. PickBRUTE take Overpass
5. BanBRUTE remove Nuke
6. BanQUAZAR remove Inferno
DeciderCache (43% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:5
QUAZAR 33%BRUTE 67%
The model gave 67% on BRUTE — the map was taken by QUAZAR.
Cacheprediction correct13:1
QUAZAR 63%BRUTE 37%
The model gave 63% on QUAZAR — the map was taken by QUAZAR.
Model check result
Model favoriteQUAZAR · 58%
Series resultQUAZAR 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2