European Pro League Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Honvéd#144 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 0:2
GenOne#95 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2GenOne pick
67%67%
Honvéd · 11 mapsnearly even +0%GenOne · 42 maps
NukeHonvéd ban
57%60%
Honvéd · 3 mapsnearly even -3%GenOne · 26 maps
AncientHonvéd pick
60%46%
Honvéd · 6 mapsedge Honvéd +14%GenOne · 22 maps
OverpassGenOne ban
29%37%
Honvéd · 3 mapsedge GenOne +8%GenOne · 15 maps
InfernoHonvéd ban
40%53%
Honvéd · 1 mapedge GenOne +13%GenOne · 13 maps
Anubispossible decider
67%57%
Honvéd · 2 mapsedge Honvéd +10%GenOne · 10 maps
MirageGenOne ban
56%50%
Honvéd · 12 mapsedge Honvéd +6%GenOne · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHonvéd remove Nuke
2. BanGenOne remove Mirage
3. PickHonvéd take Ancient
4. PickGenOne take Dust2
5. BanGenOne remove Overpass
6. BanHonvéd remove Inferno
DeciderAnubis (67% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:16
Honvéd 46%GenOne 54%
The model gave 54% on GenOne — the map was taken by GenOne.
Infernoprediction correct11:13
Honvéd 40%GenOne 60%
The model gave 60% on GenOne — the map was taken by GenOne.
Model check result
Model favoriteGenOne · 67%
Series resultGenOne 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2