ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
HOTU#41 in the world · win 2:1series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Entropy#159 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2HOTU pick
60%44%
HOTU · 11 mapsedge HOTU +16%Entropy · 5 maps
AncientEntropy ban
64%50%
HOTU · 7 mapsedge HOTU +14%Entropy · 8 maps
MirageHOTU ban
60%41%
HOTU · 1 mapedge HOTU +19%Entropy · 13 maps
Anubispossible decider
60%50%
HOTU · 1 mapedge HOTU +10%Entropy · 10 maps
NukeEntropy ban
73%40%
HOTU · 7 mapsedge HOTU +33%Entropy · 1 map
OverpassHOTU ban
29%38%
HOTU · 3 mapsedge Entropy +9%Entropy · 4 maps
CacheEntropy pick
60%63%
HOTU · 1 mapnearly even -3%Entropy · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHOTU remove Overpass
2. BanEntropy remove Nuke
3. PickHOTU take Dust2
4. PickEntropy take Cache
5. BanEntropy remove Ancient
6. BanHOTU remove Mirage
DeciderAnubis (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct26:28
HOTU 44%Entropy 56%
The model gave 56% on Entropy — the map was taken by Entropy.
Dust2prediction correct16:13
HOTU 68%Entropy 32%
The model gave 68% on HOTU — the map was taken by HOTU.
Mirageprediction correct13:9
HOTU 68%Entropy 32%
The model gave 68% on HOTU — the map was taken by HOTU.
Model check result
Model favoriteHOTU · 78%
Series resultHOTU 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3