ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
GenOne#95 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BRUTE#74 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2GenOne pick
69%67%
GenOne · 41 mapnearly even +2%BRUTE · 11 maps
Nukepossible decider
60%54%
GenOne · 26 mapsedge GenOne +6%BRUTE · 9 maps
AncientBRUTE ban
46%50%
GenOne · 22 mapsnearly even -4%BRUTE · 0 maps
OverpassBRUTE pick
37%73%
GenOne · 15 mapsedge BRUTE +36%BRUTE · 7 maps
InfernoGenOne ban
56%46%
GenOne · 12 mapsedge GenOne +10%BRUTE · 9 maps
AnubisBRUTE ban
57%40%
GenOne · 10 mapsedge GenOne +17%BRUTE · 1 map
MirageGenOne ban
50%42%
GenOne · 0 mapsedge GenOne +8%BRUTE · 8 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGenOne remove Mirage
2. BanBRUTE remove Ancient
3. PickGenOne take Dust2
4. PickBRUTE take Overpass
5. BanBRUTE remove Anubis
6. BanGenOne remove Inferno
DeciderNuke (60% / 54%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed9:13
GenOne 57%BRUTE 43%
The model gave 57% on GenOne — the map was taken by BRUTE.
Dust2prediction missed9:13
GenOne 56%BRUTE 44%
The model gave 56% on GenOne — the map was taken by BRUTE.
Model check result
Model favoriteGenOne · 62%
Series resultBRUTE 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2