ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Bushido Wildcats#82 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:2
QUAZAR#94 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Bushido Wildcats pick
69%57%
Bushido Wildcats · 12 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +12%QUAZAR · 3 maps
NukeBushido Wildcats ban
22%56%
Bushido Wildcats · 5 mapsedge QUAZAR +34%QUAZAR · 5 maps
AnubisBushido Wildcats ban
50%67%
Bushido Wildcats · 4 mapsedge QUAZAR +17%QUAZAR · 5 maps
MirageQUAZAR pick
60%71%
Bushido Wildcats · 6 mapsedge QUAZAR +11%QUAZAR · 3 maps
InfernoQUAZAR ban
57%60%
Bushido Wildcats · 3 mapsnearly even -3%QUAZAR · 1 map
OverpassQUAZAR ban
63%50%
Bushido Wildcats · 4 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +13%QUAZAR · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
67%60%
Bushido Wildcats · 2 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +7%QUAZAR · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBushido Wildcats remove Nuke
2. BanQUAZAR remove Inferno
3. PickBushido Wildcats take Dust2
4. PickQUAZAR take Mirage
5. BanQUAZAR remove Overpass
6. BanBushido Wildcats remove Anubis
DeciderDefault (67% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct7:13
Bushido Wildcats 17%QUAZAR 83%
The model gave 83% on QUAZAR — the map was taken by QUAZAR.
Infernoprediction missed6:13
Bushido Wildcats 50%QUAZAR 50%
The model gave 50% on Bushido Wildcats — the map was taken by QUAZAR.
Model check result
Model favoriteBushido Wildcats · 54%
Series resultQUAZAR 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2