NODWIN Clutch Series 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
INOX Division#66 in the world · win 2:0series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Butterfly#127 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoINOX Division pick
64%27%
INOX Division · 21 mapedge INOX Division +37%Butterfly · 7 maps
Nukepossible decider
70%64%
INOX Division · 16 mapsedge INOX Division +6%Butterfly · 10 maps
Dust2INOX Division ban
60%62%
INOX Division · 16 mapsnearly even -2%Butterfly · 9 maps
AncientButterfly pick
58%75%
INOX Division · 15 mapsedge Butterfly +17%Butterfly · 8 maps
AnubisButterfly ban
46%40%
INOX Division · 9 mapsedge INOX Division +6%Butterfly · 1 map
MirageINOX Division ban
50%67%
INOX Division · 0 mapsedge Butterfly +17%Butterfly · 8 maps
CacheButterfly ban
56%67%
INOX Division · 5 mapsedge Butterfly +11%Butterfly · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanINOX Division remove Mirage
2. BanButterfly remove Anubis
3. PickINOX Division take Inferno
4. PickButterfly take Ancient
5. BanButterfly remove Cache
6. BanINOX Division remove Dust2
DeciderNuke (70% / 64%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:9
INOX Division 29%Butterfly 71%
The model gave 71% on Butterfly — the map was taken by INOX Division.
Infernoprediction correct13:6
INOX Division 84%Butterfly 16%
The model gave 84% on INOX Division — the map was taken by INOX Division.
Model check result
Model favoriteButterfly · 54%
Series resultINOX Division 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2