ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZ NXT#146 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 1:2
SPARTA#96 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2SPARTA pick
50%57%
MOUZ NXT · 8 mapsedge SPARTA +7%SPARTA · 24 maps
Miragepossible decider
31%44%
MOUZ NXT · 9 mapsedge SPARTA +13%SPARTA · 14 maps
AncientMOUZ NXT pick
63%33%
MOUZ NXT · 4 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +30%SPARTA · 14 maps
NukeSPARTA ban
50%50%
MOUZ NXT · 4 mapsnearly even +0%SPARTA · 14 maps
OverpassMOUZ NXT ban
29%45%
MOUZ NXT · 3 mapsedge SPARTA +16%SPARTA · 7 maps
InfernoMOUZ NXT ban
50%50%
MOUZ NXT · 0 mapsnearly even +0%SPARTA · 8 maps
AnubisSPARTA ban
40%50%
MOUZ NXT · 1 mapedge SPARTA +10%SPARTA · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMOUZ NXT remove Inferno
2. BanSPARTA remove Anubis
3. PickMOUZ NXT take Ancient
4. PickSPARTA take Dust2
5. BanSPARTA remove Nuke
6. BanMOUZ NXT remove Overpass
DeciderMirage (31% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct16:14
MOUZ NXT 53%SPARTA 47%
The model gave 53% on MOUZ NXT — the map was taken by MOUZ NXT.
Dust2prediction correct1:13
MOUZ NXT 40%SPARTA 60%
The model gave 60% on SPARTA — the map was taken by SPARTA.
Mirageprediction correct4:13
MOUZ NXT 36%SPARTA 64%
The model gave 64% on SPARTA — the map was taken by SPARTA.
Model check result
Model favoriteSPARTA · 65%
Series resultSPARTA 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3