ESEA Intermediate Season 58 Oceania · BO3
result vs prediction
madlikewizards#336 in the world · win 2:1series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Infernomadlikewizards ban
60%63%
madlikewizards · 1 mapnearly even -3%LFO 8 · 4 maps
CacheLFO 8 pick
50%67%
madlikewizards · 2 mapsedge LFO 8 +17%LFO 8 · 2 maps
Nukepossible decider
60%43%
madlikewizards · 1 mapedge madlikewizards +17%LFO 8 · 3 maps
Ancientmadlikewizards ban
50%43%
madlikewizards · 0 mapsedge madlikewizards +7%LFO 8 · 3 maps
MirageLFO 8 ban
50%40%
madlikewizards · 2 mapsedge madlikewizards +10%LFO 8 · 1 map
Defaultmadlikewizards pick
50%33%
madlikewizards · 0 mapsedge madlikewizards +17%LFO 8 · 2 maps
Dust2LFO 8 ban
40%40%
madlikewizards · 1 mapnearly even +0%LFO 8 · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banmadlikewizards remove Ancient
2. BanLFO 8 remove Mirage
3. Pickmadlikewizards take Default
4. PickLFO 8 take Cache
5. BanLFO 8 remove Dust2
6. Banmadlikewizards remove Inferno
DeciderNuke (60% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed7:13
madlikewizards 64%LFO 8 36%
The model gave 64% on madlikewizards — the map was taken by LFO 8.
Dust2prediction correct13:8
madlikewizards 53%LFO 8 47%
The model gave 53% on madlikewizards — the map was taken by madlikewizards.
Cacheprediction missed13:11
madlikewizards 33%LFO 8 67%
The model gave 67% on LFO 8 — the map was taken by madlikewizards.
Model check result
Model favoritemadlikewizards · 55%
Series resultmadlikewizards 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3