ESEA Open Season 58 Asia · BO3
result vs prediction
XDM#222 in the world · win 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientCosmic Serpents ban
57%50%
XDM · 3 mapsedge XDM +7%Cosmic Serpents · 0 maps
MirageXDM pick
29%50%
XDM · 3 mapsedge Cosmic Serpents +21%Cosmic Serpents · 0 maps
InfernoCosmic Serpents pick
50%50%
XDM · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Cosmic Serpents · 0 maps
NukeCosmic Serpents ban
50%50%
XDM · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Cosmic Serpents · 0 maps
CacheXDM ban
40%50%
XDM · 1 mapedge Cosmic Serpents +10%Cosmic Serpents · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanXDM remove Cache
2. BanCosmic Serpents remove Ancient
3. PickXDM take Mirage
4. PickCosmic Serpents take Inferno
5. BanCosmic Serpents remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:10
XDM 47%Cosmic Serpents 53%
The model gave 53% on Cosmic Serpents — the map was taken by XDM.
Infernoprediction correct13:7
XDM 53%Cosmic Serpents 47%
The model gave 53% on XDM — the map was taken by XDM.
Model check result
Model favoriteXDM · 54%
Series resultXDM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2