Exort Fiesta Series 1 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Vexar#141 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageLavked pick
43%54%
Lavked · 26 mapsedge Vexar +11%Vexar · 9 maps
AncientVexar pick
47%48%
Lavked · 11 mapsnearly even -1%Vexar · 17 maps
NukeVexar ban
38%42%
Lavked · 12 mapsnearly even -4%Vexar · 8 maps
Dust2Lavked ban
50%63%
Lavked · 14 mapsedge Vexar +13%Vexar · 4 maps
AnubisVexar ban
64%38%
Lavked · 10 mapsedge Lavked +26%Vexar · 4 maps
Defaultpossible decider
43%55%
Lavked · 3 mapsedge Vexar +12%Vexar · 7 maps
InfernoLavked ban
43%60%
Lavked · 3 mapsedge Vexar +17%Vexar · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLavked remove Inferno
2. BanVexar remove Anubis
3. PickLavked take Mirage
4. PickVexar take Ancient
5. BanVexar remove Nuke
6. BanLavked remove Dust2
DeciderDefault (43% / 55%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:9
Lavked 49%Vexar 51%
The model gave 51% on Vexar — the map was taken by Lavked.
Ancientprediction correct10:13
Lavked 46%Vexar 54%
The model gave 54% on Vexar — the map was taken by Vexar.
Dust2prediction missed13:5
Lavked 38%Vexar 62%
The model gave 63% on Vexar — the map was taken by Lavked.
Model check result
Model favoriteLavked · 50%
Series resultLavked 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3