NODWIN Clutch Series 10 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Honvéd#144 in the world · win 2:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Honvéd pick
67%40%
Honvéd · 11 mapsedge Honvéd +27%Julie&Cie · 6 maps
MirageJulie&Cie ban
53%29%
Honvéd · 11 mapsedge Honvéd +24%Julie&Cie · 3 maps
AncientJulie&Cie ban
56%38%
Honvéd · 5 mapsedge Honvéd +18%Julie&Cie · 4 maps
AnubisHonvéd ban
67%43%
Honvéd · 2 mapsedge Honvéd +24%Julie&Cie · 3 maps
InfernoJulie&Cie pick
40%38%
Honvéd · 1 mapnearly even +2%Julie&Cie · 4 maps
Defaultpossible decider
40%50%
Honvéd · 1 mapedge Julie&Cie +10%Julie&Cie · 2 maps
NukeHonvéd ban
57%50%
Honvéd · 3 mapsedge Honvéd +7%Julie&Cie · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHonvéd remove Nuke
2. BanJulie&Cie remove Mirage
3. PickHonvéd take Dust2
4. PickJulie&Cie take Inferno
5. BanJulie&Cie remove Ancient
6. BanHonvéd remove Anubis
DeciderDefault (40% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:4
Honvéd 72%Julie&Cie 28%
The model gave 72% on Honvéd — the map was taken by Honvéd.
Ancientprediction correct13:2
Honvéd 70%Julie&Cie 30%
The model gave 70% on Honvéd — the map was taken by Honvéd.
Model check result
Model favoriteHonvéd · 68%
Series resultHonvéd 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2