ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
QUAZAR#94 in the world · win 2:1series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Misa#115 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Misa pick
57%57%
QUAZAR · 3 mapsnearly even +0%Misa · 17 maps
MirageMisa ban
67%43%
QUAZAR · 2 mapsedge QUAZAR +24%Misa · 10 maps
NukeMisa ban
57%46%
QUAZAR · 3 mapsedge QUAZAR +11%Misa · 9 maps
AnubisQUAZAR pick
71%42%
QUAZAR · 3 mapsedge QUAZAR +29%Misa · 8 maps
InfernoQUAZAR ban
60%40%
QUAZAR · 1 mapedge QUAZAR +20%Misa · 6 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%50%
QUAZAR · 1 mapedge QUAZAR +10%Misa · 4 maps
CacheQUAZAR ban
40%60%
QUAZAR · 1 mapedge Misa +20%Misa · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanQUAZAR remove Inferno
2. BanMisa remove Mirage
3. PickQUAZAR take Anubis
4. PickMisa take Dust2
5. BanMisa remove Nuke
6. BanQUAZAR remove Cache
DeciderDefault (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed13:16
QUAZAR 76%Misa 24%
The model gave 76% on QUAZAR — the map was taken by Misa.
Mirageprediction correct13:7
QUAZAR 75%Misa 25%
The model gave 75% on QUAZAR — the map was taken by QUAZAR.
Nukeprediction correct13:8
QUAZAR 61%Misa 39%
The model gave 61% on QUAZAR — the map was taken by QUAZAR.
Model check result
Model favoriteQUAZAR · 56%
Series resultQUAZAR 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3