ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
HOTU#41 in the world · win 2:0series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BRUTE#74 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
57%69%
HOTU · 10 mapsedge BRUTE +12%BRUTE · 9 maps
NukeHOTU pick
73%50%
HOTU · 7 mapsedge HOTU +23%BRUTE · 8 maps
OverpassBRUTE pick
29%73%
HOTU · 3 mapsedge BRUTE +44%BRUTE · 7 maps
InfernoHOTU ban
50%46%
HOTU · 0 mapsnearly even +4%BRUTE · 9 maps
MirageHOTU ban
60%42%
HOTU · 1 mapedge HOTU +18%BRUTE · 8 maps
AncientBRUTE ban
64%50%
HOTU · 7 mapsedge HOTU +14%BRUTE · 0 maps
AnubisBRUTE ban
60%40%
HOTU · 1 mapedge HOTU +20%BRUTE · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHOTU remove Inferno
2. BanBRUTE remove Ancient
3. PickHOTU take Nuke
4. PickBRUTE take Overpass
5. BanBRUTE remove Anubis
6. BanHOTU remove Mirage
DeciderDust2 (57% / 69%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:2
HOTU 34%BRUTE 66%
The model gave 66% on BRUTE — the map was taken by HOTU.
Cacheprediction correct13:6
HOTU 53%BRUTE 47%
The model gave 53% on HOTU — the map was taken by HOTU.
Model check result
Model favoriteHOTU · 73%
Series resultHOTU 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2