CROSSFIRE Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Olympus#190 in the world · win 2:0series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientBucketJonsBoys pick
50%50%
Olympus · 2 mapsnearly even +0%BucketJonsBoys · 0 maps
AnubisOlympus pick
40%50%
Olympus · 1 mapedge BucketJonsBoys +10%BucketJonsBoys · 0 maps
InfernoOlympus ban
40%50%
Olympus · 1 mapedge BucketJonsBoys +10%BucketJonsBoys · 0 maps
NukeBucketJonsBoys ban
60%50%
Olympus · 1 mapedge Olympus +10%BucketJonsBoys · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanOlympus remove Inferno
2. BanBucketJonsBoys remove Nuke
3. PickOlympus take Anubis
4. PickBucketJonsBoys take Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:8
Olympus 47%BucketJonsBoys 53%
The model gave 53% on BucketJonsBoys — the map was taken by Olympus.
Infernoprediction missed13:6
Olympus 43%BucketJonsBoys 57%
The model gave 57% on BucketJonsBoys — the map was taken by Olympus.
Model check result
Model favoriteBucketJonsBoys · 56%
Series resultOlympus 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2