CROSSFIRE Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Iowa Stormboar#162 in the world · win 2:1series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoIowa Stormboar ban
30%20%
Iowa Stormboar · 6 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +10%FarmVille · 6 maps
MirageIowa Stormboar pick
64%63%
Iowa Stormboar · 7 mapsnearly even +1%FarmVille · 4 maps
Dust2FarmVille pick
63%44%
Iowa Stormboar · 4 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +19%FarmVille · 5 maps
NukeFarmVille ban
30%50%
Iowa Stormboar · 6 mapsedge FarmVille +20%FarmVille · 0 maps
Cachepossible decider
50%43%
Iowa Stormboar · 2 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +7%FarmVille · 3 maps
AncientFarmVille ban
71%40%
Iowa Stormboar · 3 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +31%FarmVille · 1 map
AnubisIowa Stormboar ban
40%60%
Iowa Stormboar · 1 mapedge FarmVille +20%FarmVille · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanIowa Stormboar remove Anubis
2. BanFarmVille remove Ancient
3. PickIowa Stormboar take Mirage
4. PickFarmVille take Dust2
5. BanFarmVille remove Nuke
6. BanIowa Stormboar remove Inferno
DeciderCache (50% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed4:13
Iowa Stormboar 54%FarmVille 46%
The model gave 54% on Iowa Stormboar — the map was taken by FarmVille.
Mirageprediction correct13:5
Iowa Stormboar 54%FarmVille 46%
The model gave 54% on Iowa Stormboar — the map was taken by Iowa Stormboar.
Dust2prediction correct13:4
Iowa Stormboar 68%FarmVille 32%
The model gave 68% on Iowa Stormboar — the map was taken by Iowa Stormboar.
Model check result
Model favoriteIowa Stormboar · 53%
Series resultIowa Stormboar 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3