NODWIN Clutch Series 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
GenOne#95 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Leo#89 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2GenOne pick
67%55%
GenOne · 44 mapsedge GenOne +12%Leo · 25 maps
Ancientpossible decider
56%47%
GenOne · 30 mapsedge GenOne +9%Leo · 15 maps
NukeLeo pick
59%67%
GenOne · 18 mapsedge Leo +8%Leo · 14 maps
AnubisLeo ban
72%28%
GenOne · 14 mapsedge GenOne +44%Leo · 14 maps
InfernoLeo ban
45%60%
GenOne · 16 mapsedge Leo +15%Leo · 1 map
CacheGenOne ban
44%50%
GenOne · 5 mapsedge Leo +6%Leo · 2 maps
OverpassGenOne ban
36%50%
GenOne · 7 mapsedge Leo +14%Leo · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGenOne remove Cache
2. BanLeo remove Anubis
3. PickGenOne take Dust2
4. PickLeo take Nuke
5. BanLeo remove Inferno
6. BanGenOne remove Overpass
DeciderAncient (56% / 47%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct3:13
GenOne 39%Leo 61%
The model gave 61% on Leo — the map was taken by Leo.
Dust2prediction correct13:9
GenOne 65%Leo 35%
The model gave 65% on GenOne — the map was taken by GenOne.
Ancientprediction missed6:13
GenOne 58%Leo 42%
The model gave 58% on GenOne — the map was taken by Leo.
Model check result
Model favoriteGenOne · 76%
Series resultLeo 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3