Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Fluxo#56 in the world · win 2:0series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
DUSTYloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeFluxo pick
62%50%
Fluxo · 17 mapsedge Fluxo +12%DUSTY · 2 maps
Dust2DUSTY ban
50%50%
Fluxo · 12 mapsnearly even +0%DUSTY · 0 maps
Miragepossible decider
67%50%
Fluxo · 8 mapsedge Fluxo +17%DUSTY · 2 maps
InfernoDUSTY pick
45%50%
Fluxo · 7 mapsedge DUSTY +5%DUSTY · 0 maps
AnubisFluxo ban
50%50%
Fluxo · 6 mapsnearly even +0%DUSTY · 0 maps
CacheDUSTY ban
56%50%
Fluxo · 5 mapsedge Fluxo +6%DUSTY · 0 maps
AncientFluxo ban
40%50%
Fluxo · 1 mapedge DUSTY +10%DUSTY · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFluxo remove Ancient
2. BanDUSTY remove Cache
3. PickFluxo take Nuke
4. PickDUSTY take Inferno
5. BanDUSTY remove Dust2
6. BanFluxo remove Anubis
DeciderMirage (67% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:7
Fluxo 47%DUSTY 53%
The model gave 53% on DUSTY — the map was taken by Fluxo.
Infernoprediction missed13:11
Fluxo 48%DUSTY 52%
The model gave 52% on DUSTY — the map was taken by Fluxo.
Model check result
Model favoriteFluxo · 84%
Series resultFluxo 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2