Tipsport Open Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
NAVI Junior#127 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LPH#150 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2NAVI Junior ban
43%64%
NAVI Junior · 3 mapsedge LPH +21%LPH · 7 maps
AncientLPH pick
38%63%
NAVI Junior · 4 mapsedge LPH +25%LPH · 4 maps
NukeLPH ban
33%43%
NAVI Junior · 5 mapsedge LPH +10%LPH · 3 maps
AnubisNAVI Junior pick
40%60%
NAVI Junior · 6 mapsedge LPH +20%LPH · 1 map
InfernoNAVI Junior ban
29%57%
NAVI Junior · 3 mapsedge LPH +28%LPH · 3 maps
MirageLPH ban
70%50%
NAVI Junior · 6 mapsedge NAVI Junior +20%LPH · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNAVI Junior remove Inferno
2. BanLPH remove Mirage
3. PickNAVI Junior take Anubis
4. PickLPH take Ancient
5. BanLPH remove Nuke
6. BanNAVI Junior remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:16
NAVI Junior 24%LPH 76%
The model gave 76% on LPH — the map was taken by LPH.
Anubisprediction correct7:13
NAVI Junior 33%LPH 67%
The model gave 67% on LPH — the map was taken by LPH.
Model check result
Model favoriteNAVI Junior · 53%
Series resultLPH 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2