FRAG St. Clair 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
NuTorious#202 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 0:2
NRG#30 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
50%56%
NuTorious · 4 mapsedge NRG +6%NRG · 5 maps
AncientNuTorious pick
50%44%
NuTorious · 2 mapsedge NuTorious +6%NRG · 5 maps
NukeNuTorious ban
40%44%
NuTorious · 1 mapnearly even -4%NRG · 5 maps
InfernoNRG ban
50%38%
NuTorious · 0 mapsedge NuTorious +12%NRG · 4 maps
Dust2NuTorious ban
50%40%
NuTorious · 2 mapsedge NuTorious +10%NRG · 1 map
OverpassNRG ban
50%33%
NuTorious · 0 mapsedge NuTorious +17%NRG · 2 maps
CacheNRG pick
50%60%
NuTorious · 0 mapsedge NRG +10%NRG · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNuTorious remove Dust2
2. BanNRG remove Overpass
3. PickNuTorious take Ancient
4. PickNRG take Cache
5. BanNRG remove Inferno
6. BanNuTorious remove Nuke
DeciderMirage (50% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:16
NuTorious 58%NRG 42%
The model gave 58% on NuTorious — the map was taken by NRG.
Nukeprediction correct8:13
NuTorious 42%NRG 58%
The model gave 58% on NRG — the map was taken by NRG.
Model check result
Model favoriteNRG · 82%
Series resultNRG 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2