ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
SPARTA#96 in the world · win 2:0series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Noir Verse#124 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2SPARTA pick
58%50%
SPARTA · 22 mapsedge SPARTA +8%Noir Verse · 2 maps
Miragepossible decider
44%56%
SPARTA · 14 mapsedge Noir Verse +12%Noir Verse · 5 maps
NukeNoir Verse pick
50%67%
SPARTA · 14 mapsedge Noir Verse +17%Noir Verse · 5 maps
AncientSPARTA ban
29%43%
SPARTA · 13 mapsedge Noir Verse +14%Noir Verse · 3 maps
InfernoNoir Verse ban
50%40%
SPARTA · 8 mapsedge SPARTA +10%Noir Verse · 1 map
OverpassNoir Verse ban
45%40%
SPARTA · 7 mapsedge SPARTA +5%Noir Verse · 1 map
DefaultSPARTA ban
33%50%
SPARTA · 2 mapsedge Noir Verse +17%Noir Verse · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSPARTA remove Ancient
2. BanNoir Verse remove Inferno
3. PickSPARTA take Dust2
4. PickNoir Verse take Nuke
5. BanNoir Verse remove Overpass
6. BanSPARTA remove Default
DeciderMirage (44% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:6
SPARTA 47%Noir Verse 53%
The model gave 53% on Noir Verse — the map was taken by SPARTA.
Dust2prediction correct13:7
SPARTA 61%Noir Verse 39%
The model gave 61% on SPARTA — the map was taken by SPARTA.
Model check result
Model favoriteNoir Verse · 54%
Series resultSPARTA 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2