ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
QUAZAR#94 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The Last Resort#166 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeThe Last Resort ban
67%33%
QUAZAR · 2 mapsedge QUAZAR +34%The Last Resort · 11 maps
AncientQUAZAR ban
50%64%
QUAZAR · 0 mapsedge The Last Resort +14%The Last Resort · 10 maps
OverpassThe Last Resort pick
50%64%
QUAZAR · 0 mapsedge The Last Resort +14%The Last Resort · 10 maps
MirageQUAZAR pick
67%27%
QUAZAR · 2 mapsedge QUAZAR +40%The Last Resort · 7 maps
Anubispossible decider
71%71%
QUAZAR · 3 mapsnearly even +0%The Last Resort · 3 maps
InfernoQUAZAR ban
60%56%
QUAZAR · 1 mapnearly even +4%The Last Resort · 5 maps
Dust2The Last Resort ban
57%33%
QUAZAR · 3 mapsedge QUAZAR +24%The Last Resort · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanQUAZAR remove Ancient
2. BanThe Last Resort remove Dust2
3. PickQUAZAR take Mirage
4. PickThe Last Resort take Overpass
5. BanThe Last Resort remove Nuke
6. BanQUAZAR remove Inferno
DeciderAnubis (71% / 71%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed11:13
QUAZAR 53%The Last Resort 47%
The model gave 53% on QUAZAR — the map was taken by The Last Resort.
Nukeprediction missed6:13
QUAZAR 78%The Last Resort 22%
The model gave 78% on QUAZAR — the map was taken by The Last Resort.
Model check result
Model favoriteQUAZAR · 52%
Series resultThe Last Resort 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2