FRAG St. Clair 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Villainous#198 in the world · win 2:0series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoVillainous pick
57%50%
Villainous · 3 mapsedge Villainous +7%Celestial · 0 maps
AnubisVillainous ban
50%50%
Villainous · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Celestial · 0 maps
AncientCelestial pick
40%50%
Villainous · 1 mapedge Celestial +10%Celestial · 0 maps
DefaultCelestial ban
60%50%
Villainous · 1 mapedge Villainous +10%Celestial · 0 maps
Dust2Villainous ban
40%50%
Villainous · 1 mapedge Celestial +10%Celestial · 0 maps
NukeCelestial ban
60%50%
Villainous · 1 mapedge Villainous +10%Celestial · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVillainous remove Dust2
2. BanCelestial remove Default
3. PickVillainous take Inferno
4. PickCelestial take Ancient
5. BanCelestial remove Nuke
6. BanVillainous remove Anubis
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:9
Villainous 47%Celestial 53%
The model gave 53% on Celestial — the map was taken by Villainous.
Infernoprediction correct13:8
Villainous 60%Celestial 40%
The model gave 60% on Villainous — the map was taken by Villainous.
Model check result
Model favoriteVillainous · 57%
Series resultVillainous 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2