Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
levelONEloss 0:2series probability
14%86%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Phantom#87 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2levelONE pick
50%50%
levelONE · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Phantom · 12 maps
AncientPhantom pick
40%56%
levelONE · 1 mapedge Phantom +16%Phantom · 12 maps
NukelevelONE ban
50%59%
levelONE · 0 mapsedge Phantom +9%Phantom · 13 maps
MiragePhantom ban
60%43%
levelONE · 1 mapedge levelONE +17%Phantom · 10 maps
Overpasspossible decider
50%67%
levelONE · 0 mapsedge Phantom +17%Phantom · 8 maps
AnubisPhantom ban
50%50%
levelONE · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Phantom · 4 maps
InfernolevelONE ban
50%67%
levelONE · 0 mapsedge Phantom +17%Phantom · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanlevelONE remove Nuke
2. BanPhantom remove Anubis
3. PicklevelONE take Dust2
4. PickPhantom take Ancient
5. BanPhantom remove Mirage
6. BanlevelONE remove Inferno
DeciderOverpass (50% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed4:13
levelONE 53%Phantom 47%
The model gave 53% on levelONE — the map was taken by Phantom.
Ancientprediction correct5:13
levelONE 32%Phantom 68%
The model gave 68% on Phantom — the map was taken by Phantom.
Model check result
Model favoritePhantom · 86%
Series resultPhantom 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2