CROSSFIRE Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Marsborne#82 in the world · win 2:0series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Iowa Stormboar#162 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoIowa Stormboar ban
60%30%
Marsborne · 11 mapsedge Marsborne +30%Iowa Stormboar · 6 maps
AncientMarsborne pick
59%71%
Marsborne · 13 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +12%Iowa Stormboar · 3 maps
MirageIowa Stormboar pick
60%67%
Marsborne · 6 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +7%Iowa Stormboar · 8 maps
Dust2Marsborne ban
58%67%
Marsborne · 8 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +9%Iowa Stormboar · 5 maps
Nukepossible decider
50%30%
Marsborne · 6 mapsedge Marsborne +20%Iowa Stormboar · 6 maps
AnubisIowa Stormboar ban
63%40%
Marsborne · 4 mapsedge Marsborne +23%Iowa Stormboar · 1 map
CacheMarsborne ban
40%43%
Marsborne · 1 mapnearly even -3%Iowa Stormboar · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMarsborne remove Cache
2. BanIowa Stormboar remove Inferno
3. PickMarsborne take Ancient
4. PickIowa Stormboar take Mirage
5. BanIowa Stormboar remove Anubis
6. BanMarsborne remove Dust2
DeciderNuke (50% / 30%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:6
Marsborne 40%Iowa Stormboar 60%
The model gave 60% on Iowa Stormboar — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Anubisprediction correct13:5
Marsborne 74%Iowa Stormboar 26%
The model gave 74% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Model check result
Model favoriteMarsborne · 70%
Series resultMarsborne 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2