CROSSFIRE Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
regain#199 in the world · loss 0:1series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Marsborne#82 in the world · win 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientMarsborne pick
62%63%
regain · 9 mapsnearly even -1%Marsborne · 15 maps
Infernoregain pick
53%60%
regain · 11 mapsedge Marsborne +7%Marsborne · 11 maps
MirageMarsborne ban
44%67%
regain · 12 mapsedge Marsborne +23%Marsborne · 8 maps
Dust2Marsborne ban
50%58%
regain · 8 mapsedge Marsborne +8%Marsborne · 8 maps
Anubisregain ban
60%70%
regain · 1 mapedge Marsborne +10%Marsborne · 6 maps
Nukeregain ban
50%50%
regain · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Marsborne · 6 maps
Defaultpossible decider
57%67%
regain · 3 mapsedge Marsborne +10%Marsborne · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banregain remove Nuke
2. BanMarsborne remove Mirage
3. Pickregain take Inferno
4. PickMarsborne take Ancient
5. BanMarsborne remove Dust2
6. Banregain remove Anubis
DeciderDefault (57% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct0:1
regain 40%Marsborne 60%
The model gave 60% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Model check result
Model favoriteMarsborne · 68%
Series resultMarsborne 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1