CROSSFIRE Season 6 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Zomblers#197 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoZomblers pick
40%44%
Babag · 1 mapnearly even -4%Zomblers · 5 maps
Dust2Babag pick
50%43%
Babag · 2 mapsedge Babag +7%Zomblers · 3 maps
Ancientpossible decider
40%67%
Babag · 1 mapedge Zomblers +27%Zomblers · 2 maps
NukeBabag ban
50%43%
Babag · 0 mapsedge Babag +7%Zomblers · 3 maps
AnubisZomblers ban
40%40%
Babag · 1 mapnearly even +0%Zomblers · 1 map
DefaultZomblers ban
50%60%
Babag · 0 mapsedge Zomblers +10%Zomblers · 1 map
MirageBabag ban
50%60%
Babag · 0 mapsedge Zomblers +10%Zomblers · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBabag remove Nuke
2. BanZomblers remove Anubis
3. PickBabag take Dust2
4. PickZomblers take Inferno
5. BanZomblers remove Default
6. BanBabag remove Mirage
DeciderAncient (40% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed9:13
Babag 60%Zomblers 40%
The model gave 60% on Babag — the map was taken by Zomblers.
Infernoprediction correct11:13
Babag 42%Zomblers 58%
The model gave 58% on Zomblers — the map was taken by Zomblers.
Model check result
Model favoriteZomblers · 54%
Series resultZomblers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2