CROSSFIRE Season 6 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LAG#91 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2LAG pick
40%57%
FarmVille · 6 mapsedge LAG +17%LAG · 10 maps
Infernopossible decider
20%50%
FarmVille · 6 mapsedge LAG +30%LAG · 8 maps
MirageFarmVille pick
56%38%
FarmVille · 5 mapsedge FarmVille +18%LAG · 9 maps
NukeFarmVille ban
50%62%
FarmVille · 0 mapsedge LAG +12%LAG · 9 maps
AncientFarmVille ban
40%60%
FarmVille · 1 mapedge LAG +20%LAG · 6 maps
AnubisLAG ban
60%67%
FarmVille · 1 mapedge LAG +7%LAG · 5 maps
CacheLAG ban
50%50%
FarmVille · 4 mapsnearly even +0%LAG · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFarmVille remove Ancient
2. BanLAG remove Cache
3. PickFarmVille take Mirage
4. PickLAG take Dust2
5. BanLAG remove Anubis
6. BanFarmVille remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (20% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct4:13
FarmVille 36%LAG 64%
The model gave 64% on LAG — the map was taken by LAG.
Infernoprediction correct5:13
FarmVille 18%LAG 82%
The model gave 82% on LAG — the map was taken by LAG.
Model check result
Model favoriteLAG · 66%
Series resultLAG 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2