CROSSFIRE Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
F5#208 in the world · win 2:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Omen#216 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientF5 pick
60%40%
F5 · 1 mapedge F5 +20%Omen · 1 map
AnubisOmen pick
50%67%
F5 · 0 mapsedge Omen +17%Omen · 2 maps
Dust2Omen ban
40%40%
F5 · 1 mapnearly even +0%Omen · 1 map
InfernoF5 ban
50%60%
F5 · 0 mapsedge Omen +10%Omen · 1 map
MirageOmen ban
40%50%
F5 · 1 mapedge Omen +10%Omen · 0 maps
NukeF5 ban
50%40%
F5 · 0 mapsedge F5 +10%Omen · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanF5 remove Inferno
2. BanOmen remove Mirage
3. PickF5 take Ancient
4. PickOmen take Anubis
5. BanOmen remove Dust2
6. BanF5 remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed4:13
F5 57%Omen 43%
The model gave 57% on F5 — the map was taken by Omen.
Mirageprediction missed13:8
F5 43%Omen 57%
The model gave 57% on Omen — the map was taken by F5.
Infernoprediction missed13:8
F5 40%Omen 60%
The model gave 60% on Omen — the map was taken by F5.
Model check result
Model favoriteOmen · 50%
Series resultF5 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3