CROSSFIRE Season 6 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Addicewin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientAddice ban
50%50%
my life be like · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Addice · 0 maps
Miragemy life be like pick
60%60%
my life be like · 1 mapnearly even +0%Addice · 1 map
NukeAddice pick
33%50%
my life be like · 2 mapsedge Addice +17%Addice · 0 maps
CacheAddice ban
50%40%
my life be like · 0 mapsedge my life be like +10%Addice · 1 map
Dust2my life be like ban
50%60%
my life be like · 0 mapsedge Addice +10%Addice · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banmy life be like remove Dust2
2. BanAddice remove Ancient
3. Pickmy life be like take Mirage
4. PickAddice take Nuke
5. BanAddice remove Cache
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct13:5
my life be like 53%Addice 47%
The model gave 53% on my life be like — the map was taken by my life be like.
Dust2prediction correct6:13
my life be like 37%Addice 63%
The model gave 63% on Addice — the map was taken by Addice.
Infernoprediction missed4:13
my life be like 50%Addice 50%
The model gave 50% on my life be like — the map was taken by Addice.
Model check result
Model favoriteAddice · 50%
Series resultAddice 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3