CROSSFIRE Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
DETONATE#196 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LAG#91 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Infernopossible decider
33%53%
DETONATE · 11 mapsedge LAG +20%LAG · 11 maps
MirageLAG ban
30%43%
DETONATE · 6 mapsedge LAG +13%LAG · 10 maps
NukeDETONATE pick
57%64%
DETONATE · 3 mapsedge LAG +7%LAG · 10 maps
Dust2DETONATE ban
50%63%
DETONATE · 0 mapsedge LAG +13%LAG · 12 maps
AncientDETONATE ban
43%64%
DETONATE · 3 mapsedge LAG +21%LAG · 7 maps
AnubisLAG pick
29%70%
DETONATE · 3 mapsedge LAG +41%LAG · 6 maps
CacheLAG ban
60%50%
DETONATE · 6 mapsedge DETONATE +10%LAG · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDETONATE remove Dust2
2. BanLAG remove Cache
3. PickDETONATE take Nuke
4. PickLAG take Anubis
5. BanLAG remove Mirage
6. BanDETONATE remove Ancient
DeciderInferno (33% / 53%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct5:13
DETONATE 16%LAG 84%
The model gave 84% on LAG — the map was taken by LAG.
Nukeprediction correct23:25
DETONATE 40%LAG 60%
The model gave 60% on LAG — the map was taken by LAG.
Model check result
Model favoriteLAG · 81%
Series resultLAG 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2