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CROSSFIRE Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Marsborne#82 in the world · win 2:0
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Overtake Sector#143 in the world · loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoMarsborne pick
70%53%
Marsborne · 16 mapsedge Marsborne +17%Overtake Sector · 13 maps
MirageOvertake Sector pick
62%70%
Marsborne · 9 mapsedge Overtake Sector +8%Overtake Sector · 19 maps
Ancientpossible decider
65%50%
Marsborne · 16 mapsedge Marsborne +15%Overtake Sector · 10 maps
Dust2Marsborne ban
64%38%
Marsborne · 10 mapsedge Marsborne +26%Overtake Sector · 9 maps
AnubisOvertake Sector ban
67%50%
Marsborne · 8 mapsedge Marsborne +17%Overtake Sector · 4 maps
NukeOvertake Sector ban
50%50%
Marsborne · 8 mapsnearly even +0%Overtake Sector · 0 maps
CacheMarsborne ban
40%63%
Marsborne · 1 mapedge Overtake Sector +23%Overtake Sector · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMarsborne remove Cache
2. BanOvertake Sector remove Nuke
3. PickMarsborne take Inferno
4. PickOvertake Sector take Mirage
5. BanOvertake Sector remove Anubis
6. BanMarsborne remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (65% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:4
Marsborne 38%Overtake Sector 62%
The model gave 62% on Overtake Sector — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Infernoprediction correct13:5
Marsborne 70%Overtake Sector 30%
The model gave 70% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Model check result
Model favoriteMarsborne · 74%
Series resultMarsborne 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2