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CROSSFIRE Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Without a Roof#81 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
LAG#91 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoLAG ban
65%55%
Without a Roof · 13 mapsedge Without a Roof +10%LAG · 16 maps
MirageWithout a Roof pick
68%47%
Without a Roof · 15 mapsedge Without a Roof +21%LAG · 13 maps
Dust2LAG pick
50%63%
Without a Roof · 8 mapsedge LAG +13%LAG · 15 maps
Ancientpossible decider
53%67%
Without a Roof · 11 mapsedge LAG +14%LAG · 8 maps
NukeWithout a Roof ban
58%67%
Without a Roof · 8 mapsedge LAG +9%LAG · 11 maps
AnubisWithout a Roof ban
60%69%
Without a Roof · 1 mapedge LAG +9%LAG · 9 maps
CacheLAG ban
57%50%
Without a Roof · 3 mapsedge Without a Roof +7%LAG · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWithout a Roof remove Anubis
2. BanLAG remove Cache
3. PickWithout a Roof take Mirage
4. PickLAG take Dust2
5. BanLAG remove Inferno
6. BanWithout a Roof remove Nuke
DeciderAncient (53% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:10
Without a Roof 73%LAG 27%
The model gave 73% on Without a Roof — the map was taken by Without a Roof.
Ancientprediction correct11:13
Without a Roof 34%LAG 66%
The model gave 66% on LAG — the map was taken by LAG.
Infernoprediction correct13:11
Without a Roof 60%LAG 40%
The model gave 60% on Without a Roof — the map was taken by Without a Roof.
Model check result
Model favoriteWithout a Roof · 57%
Series resultWithout a Roof 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3