FRAG St. Clair 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Villainous#198 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
SportsBetExpert#69 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoVillainous pick
63%64%
Villainous · 4 mapsnearly even -1%SportsBetExpert · 7 maps
AnubisSportsBetExpert pick
50%71%
Villainous · 2 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +21%SportsBetExpert · 3 maps
Dust2Villainous ban
40%67%
Villainous · 1 mapedge SportsBetExpert +27%SportsBetExpert · 2 maps
NukeSportsBetExpert ban
60%50%
Villainous · 1 mapedge Villainous +10%SportsBetExpert · 2 maps
AncientSportsBetExpert ban
40%60%
Villainous · 1 mapedge SportsBetExpert +20%SportsBetExpert · 1 map
CacheVillainous ban
60%50%
Villainous · 1 mapedge Villainous +10%SportsBetExpert · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%50%
Villainous · 1 mapedge Villainous +10%SportsBetExpert · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVillainous remove Dust2
2. BanSportsBetExpert remove Ancient
3. PickVillainous take Inferno
4. PickSportsBetExpert take Anubis
5. BanSportsBetExpert remove Nuke
6. BanVillainous remove Cache
DeciderDefault (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct14:16
Villainous 31%SportsBetExpert 69%
The model gave 69% on SportsBetExpert — the map was taken by SportsBetExpert.
Mirageprediction correct7:13
Villainous 47%SportsBetExpert 53%
The model gave 53% on SportsBetExpert — the map was taken by SportsBetExpert.
Model check result
Model favoriteSportsBetExpert · 61%
Series resultSportsBetExpert 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2