RES Showdown 4 South America: BLAST Premier Rising Event · BO3
result vs prediction
paiN#29 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Sharks#51 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukepaiN pick
54%65%
paiN · 9 mapsedge Sharks +11%Sharks · 13 maps
AncientpaiN ban
50%64%
paiN · 0 mapsedge Sharks +14%Sharks · 10 maps
MiragepaiN ban
50%42%
paiN · 2 mapsedge paiN +8%Sharks · 8 maps
OverpassSharks ban
50%29%
paiN · 6 mapsedge paiN +21%Sharks · 3 maps
Anubispossible decider
63%38%
paiN · 4 mapsedge paiN +25%Sharks · 4 maps
InfernoSharks pick
57%67%
paiN · 3 mapsedge Sharks +10%Sharks · 5 maps
Dust2Sharks ban
55%50%
paiN · 7 mapsedge paiN +5%Sharks · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanpaiN remove Ancient
2. BanSharks remove Dust2
3. PickpaiN take Nuke
4. PickSharks take Inferno
5. BanSharks remove Overpass
6. BanpaiN remove Mirage
DeciderAnubis (63% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct11:13
paiN 47%Sharks 53%
The model gave 53% on Sharks — the map was taken by Sharks.
Nukeprediction correct7:13
paiN 42%Sharks 58%
The model gave 58% on Sharks — the map was taken by Sharks.
Model check result
Model favoritepaiN · 63%
Series resultSharks 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2