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RES Showdown 4 Europe: BLAST Premier Rising Event · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.pro#50 in the world · loss 0:2
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Inner Circle#28 in the world · win 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Virtus.pro ban
47%71%
Virtus.pro · 11 mapsedge Inner Circle +24%Inner Circle · 10 maps
MirageVirtus.pro pick
60%42%
Virtus.pro · 11 mapsedge Virtus.pro +18%Inner Circle · 8 maps
OverpassInner Circle ban
64%56%
Virtus.pro · 10 mapsedge Virtus.pro +8%Inner Circle · 5 maps
AncientInner Circle pick
60%64%
Virtus.pro · 6 mapsnearly even -4%Inner Circle · 7 maps
NukeInner Circle ban
78%60%
Virtus.pro · 5 mapsedge Virtus.pro +18%Inner Circle · 6 maps
AnubisVirtus.pro ban
50%67%
Virtus.pro · 4 mapsedge Inner Circle +17%Inner Circle · 2 maps
Defaultpossible decider
40%60%
Virtus.pro · 1 mapedge Inner Circle +20%Inner Circle · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVirtus.pro remove Dust2
2. BanInner Circle remove Overpass
3. PickVirtus.pro take Mirage
4. PickInner Circle take Ancient
5. BanInner Circle remove Nuke
6. BanVirtus.pro remove Anubis
DeciderDefault (40% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed9:13
Virtus.pro 70%Inner Circle 30%
The model gave 70% on Virtus.pro — the map was taken by Inner Circle.
Dust2prediction correct9:13
Virtus.pro 24%Inner Circle 76%
The model gave 76% on Inner Circle — the map was taken by Inner Circle.
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle · 62%
Series resultInner Circle 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2