Thunderpick World Championship 2026 South America Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Bounty Hunters#74 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Keyd Stars#155 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Keyd Stars pick
59%56%
Bounty Hunters · 18 mapsnearly even +3%Keyd Stars · 14 maps
AncientBounty Hunters pick
60%53%
Bounty Hunters · 16 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +7%Keyd Stars · 13 maps
Miragepossible decider
58%54%
Bounty Hunters · 15 mapsnearly even +4%Keyd Stars · 9 maps
NukeKeyd Stars ban
76%43%
Bounty Hunters · 13 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +33%Keyd Stars · 10 maps
AnubisBounty Hunters ban
45%67%
Bounty Hunters · 7 mapsedge Keyd Stars +22%Keyd Stars · 5 maps
OverpassBounty Hunters ban
43%50%
Bounty Hunters · 3 mapsedge Keyd Stars +7%Keyd Stars · 2 maps
CacheKeyd Stars ban
50%40%
Bounty Hunters · 2 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +10%Keyd Stars · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBounty Hunters remove Overpass
2. BanKeyd Stars remove Nuke
3. PickBounty Hunters take Ancient
4. PickKeyd Stars take Dust2
5. BanKeyd Stars remove Cache
6. BanBounty Hunters remove Anubis
DeciderMirage (58% / 54%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed11:13
Bounty Hunters 54%Keyd Stars 46%
The model gave 54% on Bounty Hunters — the map was taken by Keyd Stars.
Nukeprediction correct13:8
Bounty Hunters 83%Keyd Stars 17%
The model gave 83% on Bounty Hunters — the map was taken by Bounty Hunters.
Mirageprediction missed7:13
Bounty Hunters 54%Keyd Stars 46%
The model gave 54% on Bounty Hunters — the map was taken by Keyd Stars.
Model check result
Model favoriteBounty Hunters · 78%
Series resultKeyd Stars 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3