European Pro League Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
BASEMENT BOYS#96 in the world · win 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Enjoy#199 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientEnjoy pick
58%60%
BASEMENT BOYS · 8 mapsnearly even -2%Enjoy · 6 maps
Dust2BASEMENT BOYS pick
69%63%
BASEMENT BOYS · 9 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +6%Enjoy · 4 maps
Anubispossible decider
50%63%
BASEMENT BOYS · 6 mapsedge Enjoy +13%Enjoy · 4 maps
NukeEnjoy ban
54%60%
BASEMENT BOYS · 9 mapsedge Enjoy +6%Enjoy · 1 map
MirageBASEMENT BOYS ban
67%71%
BASEMENT BOYS · 5 mapsnearly even -4%Enjoy · 3 maps
InfernoEnjoy ban
36%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 7 mapsedge Enjoy +14%Enjoy · 0 maps
OverpassBASEMENT BOYS ban
40%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 1 mapedge Enjoy +10%Enjoy · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Overpass
2. BanEnjoy remove Inferno
3. PickBASEMENT BOYS take Dust2
4. PickEnjoy take Ancient
5. BanEnjoy remove Nuke
6. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Mirage
DeciderAnubis (50% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:5
BASEMENT BOYS 47%Enjoy 53%
The model gave 53% on Enjoy — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Ancientprediction missed13:4
BASEMENT BOYS 45%Enjoy 55%
The model gave 55% on Enjoy — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Model check result
Model favoriteBASEMENT BOYS · 62%
Series resultBASEMENT BOYS 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2