RES Showdown 4 South America: BLAST Premier Rising Event · BO3
result vs prediction
Sharks#51 in the world · win 2:1series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BESTIA#65 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeSharks pick
65%50%
Sharks · 13 mapsedge Sharks +15%BESTIA · 4 maps
Ancientpossible decider
62%60%
Sharks · 9 mapsnearly even +2%BESTIA · 1 map
MirageBESTIA pick
45%67%
Sharks · 7 mapsedge BESTIA +22%BESTIA · 2 maps
InfernoSharks ban
67%50%
Sharks · 5 mapsedge Sharks +17%BESTIA · 2 maps
Dust2Sharks ban
50%67%
Sharks · 0 mapsedge BESTIA +17%BESTIA · 5 maps
AnubisBESTIA ban
38%50%
Sharks · 4 mapsedge BESTIA +12%BESTIA · 0 maps
OverpassBESTIA ban
29%40%
Sharks · 3 mapsedge BESTIA +11%BESTIA · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSharks remove Dust2
2. BanBESTIA remove Anubis
3. PickSharks take Nuke
4. PickBESTIA take Mirage
5. BanBESTIA remove Overpass
6. BanSharks remove Inferno
DeciderAncient (62% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct10:13
Sharks 27%BESTIA 73%
The model gave 73% on BESTIA — the map was taken by BESTIA.
Cacheprediction correct13:8
Sharks 53%BESTIA 47%
The model gave 53% on Sharks — the map was taken by Sharks.
Ancientprediction correct13:3
Sharks 52%BESTIA 48%
The model gave 52% on Sharks — the map was taken by Sharks.
Model check result
Model favoriteSharks · 63%
Series resultSharks 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3