RES Showdown 4 Europe: BLAST Premier Rising Event · BO3
result vs prediction
B8#15 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Virtus.pro#50 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
40%57%
B8 · 11 mapsedge Virtus.pro +17%Virtus.pro · 10 maps
AncientB8 pick
53%67%
B8 · 15 mapsedge Virtus.pro +14%Virtus.pro · 5 maps
Dust2Virtus.pro ban
64%43%
B8 · 7 mapsedge B8 +21%Virtus.pro · 10 maps
OverpassVirtus.pro pick
56%64%
B8 · 5 mapsedge Virtus.pro +8%Virtus.pro · 10 maps
NukeB8 ban
50%78%
B8 · 4 mapsedge Virtus.pro +28%Virtus.pro · 5 maps
AnubisB8 ban
50%50%
B8 · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Virtus.pro · 4 maps
InfernoVirtus.pro ban
50%50%
B8 · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Virtus.pro · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanB8 remove Anubis
2. BanVirtus.pro remove Inferno
3. PickB8 take Ancient
4. PickVirtus.pro take Overpass
5. BanVirtus.pro remove Dust2
6. BanB8 remove Nuke
DeciderMirage (40% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed11:13
B8 67%Virtus.pro 33%
The model gave 67% on B8 — the map was taken by Virtus.pro.
Ancientprediction missed13:7
B8 39%Virtus.pro 61%
The model gave 61% on Virtus.pro — the map was taken by B8.
Mirageprediction correct10:13
B8 33%Virtus.pro 67%
The model gave 67% on Virtus.pro — the map was taken by Virtus.pro.
Model check result
Model favoriteB8 · 75%
Series resultVirtus.pro 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3