European Pro League Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
WBT#108 in the world · win 2:0series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Just Players ban
60%38%
WBT · 6 mapsedge WBT +22%Just Players · 9 maps
MirageWBT pick
56%57%
WBT · 5 mapsnearly even -1%Just Players · 10 maps
AncientJust Players pick
50%50%
WBT · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Just Players · 10 maps
NukeJust Players ban
40%42%
WBT · 1 mapnearly even -2%Just Players · 8 maps
Overpasspossible decider
67%60%
WBT · 2 mapsedge WBT +7%Just Players · 6 maps
AnubisWBT ban
43%71%
WBT · 3 mapsedge Just Players +28%Just Players · 3 maps
DefaultWBT ban
60%50%
WBT · 1 mapedge WBT +10%Just Players · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWBT remove Anubis
2. BanJust Players remove Nuke
3. PickWBT take Mirage
4. PickJust Players take Ancient
5. BanJust Players remove Dust2
6. BanWBT remove Default
DeciderOverpass (67% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:4
WBT 73%Just Players 27%
The model gave 73% on WBT — the map was taken by WBT.
Mirageprediction missed13:10
WBT 45%Just Players 55%
The model gave 55% on Just Players — the map was taken by WBT.
Model check result
Model favoriteJust Players · 62%
Series resultWBT 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2